On correlations

[unixronin]

The historic flogging-the-dead-horse argument from the Left's gun control lobby has always been, "Guns (inherently and automatically) cause crime".  And, as the Gun Counter observes, the common assumption is that crime is largely motivated by economic desperation.  Put simply, when times are hard, people on the bottom tiers of society rob and steal to survive.

Yet as real unemployment rises well into double digits and the economy continues to deteriorate, crime has been dropping across the board.  The FBI's Crime in the United States Report for 2009 shows solid drops in all categories of violent and property crime — in the course of a year during which Americans bought 14 million guns and 14 billion rounds of ammunition, and in which state after state made it easier for law-abiding citizens to legally go about their daily business armed.

Now, one cannot necessarily conclude from this alone that increased gun ownership directly reduces crime.¹  However, at this point, even an idiot should be able to see that the mantra that guns necessarily cause crime is a load of old codswallop.

To quote a favorite slogan of the California Rifle & Pistol Association, "Society is safer when criminals don't know who's armed."  And the more of society that criminals have a reason to believe might be armed, the worse the risk for criminals, and the better for all the rest of us — armed or not.

[1]  Although other studies, however determinedly gun control activists stick their fingers in their ears and shout "LA LA LA LA LA I CAN'T HEAR YOU", have repeatedly demonstrated that this is in fact the case.

Comments

[ithildae]

Have you read Freakonomics? Steve Levin uses correlation to show that legalizing abortion in the early 1970's is the cause of the crime drop today. It makes sense.

Correlation is a poor substitute for reason. The cigarette companies used the weakness of correlation to postpone legal problems for decades. I know that some medical devices are not measuring what you think they are, but are depending on the correlation. It is scary.

"A man convinced against his will, ..."