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I stumbled across an article posted a few months back by Tony Blankley, giving a very cogent and well-reasoned argument in favor of repeal of the 17th Amendment. He argues convincingly that while the 17th Amendment was passed in response to widespread corruption among Senators, all it actually achieved was to centralize the Senate corruption in Washington DC and make it worse, and to dilute the ability of voters to oust their Senators for corruption.
I was actually looking for a transcript of a Front Page show that I, again, stumbled across mention of, in which Blankley opined that the GOP is one election — or, rather, one major failure — away from death. His contention is that the Republican Party has blown it so badly in recent years that if they win big in 2010 (as they look likely to do as a result of voter backlash against Obama's policies), and then blow it AGAIN, the GOP is finished.
Blankley also opined, in another recent column, that we have screwed up so badly in Afghanistan politically, vacillating on support for Afghan President Hamid Karzai and then publicly humiliating him, that we no longer have the support necessary for a military victory there, and would be best advised to cut our losses and bring our troops home.
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In the US, direct election of the executive branch and the specifics of our division of power among the 3 branches locks in a 2-party system by making coalition politics of minor parties in the legislative branch non-viable.
The only time in US history that one party has actually died is when it gets replaced by another party. More usually, when a 3rd party starts to get strong enough to begin to unbalance the apple cart, the 2 parties co-opt its issues between themselves.
There is no viable 3rd party contender to replace the Republican Party.
The Republican Party's problem is not political philosophy per se, it's that it lacks a salable plan and a sufficiently charismatic leader to sell it. Give it a charismatic leader with a plan, and if it hasn't been replaced by a 3rd party, it doesn't matter how far down it is, it'll come back up.
That's what's consistent with history, anyway.
If a single party ever did get a lock on American politics--executive and filibuster-proof legislative control, ongoing--that party would immediately schism along its weakest fault lines and we'd be back to two parties.
If the Democratic Party really starts to get that lock, the Republican Party will, led by some charismatic opportunist (aka politician), co-opt whatever chunks of the Democrats' base is the least incompatible and feels the most neglected.
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And if it can't find one? Or if its base abandon it in disgust and form a new third party?
Or a new party will form that isn't burdened down by the GOP's political baggage.
Honestly, if the Republican party does fall apart, I don't think the Democratic party will be more than a term or two behind it. The Democratic party defines itself too much in terms of "We're Not Republicans" to long survive the death of the Repoblican party. As you said, it would schism into splinter groups. And maybe that would give the opportunity for a true centrist party to arise from the ruins of both.
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People have competing interests. People will split into camps to forward their interests. "Center" is an illusion. All "center" means for each individual voter is that that's not his personal ox getting gored.
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An example--and I'm not saying it'll be this one--is anti-union sentiment. Blue collar workers who vote Democrat are one of the largest blocks the Republican Party almost has. So one example would be some of the major policies really pissing the unions off would get marginalized in order to buy those votes.
It might be a different issue.
There is some issue or issues the larger block of Republicans are willing to give up in favor of winning.
I doubt it would be abortion because of intensity of feeling and the number of people who are that intense, but if the Republicans could bring themselves to ditch the abortion issue a lot of presently Democrat voters would lose their major reason for voting against Republicans.
If Republicans would ditch every anti-gay policy, they'd get a lot of voters they don't have now.
I am not saying they ever will, I'm saying if the Republicans can't get off the ground with a charismatic leader or three and a salable Plan, then the issues under the Republican tent will suffer a Darwinian weeding.
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If some smart Republican politician could find a way to still catch terrorists while making the means less frightening to the average American in a civil liberties sense, they'd win votes.
One possibility would be to take advantage of widespread anti-immigrant sentiment to crack way down on visas, student visas, and H1Bs then make some of the investigation/enforcement procedures less big brother-y
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Require governments to post bond in advance for any potential visitor State deems a "flight risk"--money forfeited for everyone who comes in who doesn't go home on time.
Let State refuse visas, on a discretionary basis, to anyone born in a country on the watch list even if they've since been naturalized elsewhere. Or allow State to require their government to accept liability for any damages and maintain an escrow fund to cover collectively the damages from its citizens.
Or whatever.
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Perhaps a biometric "I can fly" card, or register their driver's license/state ID number and social security number, any of the three being enough to get them on the plane.
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