"It's the Economy, Stupid"

[unixronin]

And the government isn't exactly helping.

On February 2, 2009, NumbersUSA with the Coalition for the Future American Worker launched the above "elevator ad" in an extended nationwide educational campaign on cable TV.

The purpose of the ad is to inform the public of two government statistics that, when placed together, show an outrageous participation of our federal government in increasing the numbers of unemployed Americans.

The two statistics from last year?

• 2.5 million Americans lost jobs
• The federal government brought in 1.5 million new foreign workers to take jobs

NumbersUSA has been doing everything in its power the last three months to persuade the nation's political leaders and media leaders to address this incongruous policy. Yet to date, there has been no indication whatsoever of a slow-down in importing an average of 138,000 new foreign workers each month -- even as half-million Americans a month are losing jobs.

This tells only part of the story, of course.  Part of the problem is that employers want to hire the cheapest workers they can, even if they're not the best.  Part of the problem is that sometimes they ARE the best, because US schools aren't graduating enough qualified engineers and other technical professionals.¹  Too many people want the "easy money" careers like law practice and banking.²  On the lower end of the scale, most of the Mexican migrant workers that people complain about are doing menial jobs that the complainers aren't willing to do in the first place.

[1]  The truth of this claim is hard to ascertain.  There are documented claims asserting both its truth and its falsehood.

[2]  Lawyers are perhaps the most egregious example.  The United States has 5% of the world's population, and 70% of the world's lawyers.  The United States has slightly under 2.4 times the population of Japan, and 30 times as many lawsuits per year.  The US has three lawyers for every doctor, five lawyers for every four police officers, two lawyers for every three engineers.

Comments

[ilcylic.livejournal.com]

Yes, I'm sure that artificially distorting the price of labor for businesses would have absolutely no deleterious effects on the economy. Because everyone knows that businesses just print money, but they're greedy and don't want to share it. It's impossible to think that businesses might just shut down if it becomes no longer profitable to, y'know, do business.

If you want the fedgov to do something about the economy, encourage them to cut taxes. Permanently. Businesses will have more money to hire more people with, and people can afford to take lower pay when the government isn't stealing half of it before it hits the bank.

[unixronin.livejournal.com]

That.

[ilcylic.livejournal.com]

I mean, for fuck's sake. Even God only demands 10% (the tithe).

[unixronin.livejournal.com]

Which coincides interestingly with the economic analysis that a marginal tax rate in the range of 10% to 13% is optimal, and any higher rate actually reduces long-term revenue because of the burden on the economy. (And that's not even getting into parasitic costs like the IRS.)

Right now, though, we're in a situation in which, even without the banking crisis, the economy is staggering under the weight of government, and the government either has to impose higher and higher taxes, or borrow more and more money faster and faster, just to stay "solvent on paper". And of course the more it raises taxes, the more the economy slows down, and the more the government borrows, the weaker the economy becomes overall.

There aren't too many ways that can end, and most of them are bad.

[ithildae.livejournal.com]

I want an ending where I can keep the Constitution intact. I know it has it's flaws, but it is better than anything we have now.

[unixronin.livejournal.com]

Hear, hear.

As for the flaws ... well, some of them are fixable; others are compromises between being ideal and actually being able to work in the real world. That's a hard line to draw.

I think these days our government honors the Constitution almost more in the omission — or the evasion — than in the observance. Its principal significance to most of Congress, I think, is that it prevents them from directly doing many of the things they actually want to do.

She's still there, last time I looked --

[pernishus.livejournal.com]

The New Colossus

Not like the brazen giant of Greek fame,

With conquering limbs astride from land to land;

Here at our sea-washed, sunset gates shall stand

A mighty woman with a torch, whose flame

Is the imprisoned lightning, and her name

Mother of Exiles. From her beacon-hand

Glows world-wide welcome; her mild eyes command

The air-bridged harbor that twin cities frame.

"Keep ancient lands, your storied pomp!" cries she

With silent lips. "Give me your tired, your poor,

Your huddled masses yearning to breathe free,

The wretched refuse of your teeming shore.

Send these, the homeless, tempest-tost to me,

I lift my lamp beside the golden door!"

Re: She's still there, last time I looked --

[unixronin.livejournal.com]

The golden door isn't as golden these days as it used to be. (Though even that depends what you're comparing to.) But notice what I said; this is not a one-sided issue. A lot of people who complain about Mexican migrant workers coming in and "taking away jobs", for example, aren't willing to do the jobs those Mexican migrant workers do. And in the professional arena, I'm given to understand that in 2008, Chinese universities graduated 300,000 engineers, while American universities graduated 4,000. But we graduate more lawyers, doctors, bankers and MBAs than any other nation in the world ... professions which have a perception of getting you rich quickly.

Re: She's still there, last time I looked --

[jhetley.livejournal.com]

>... aren't willing to do the jobs those Mexican migrant workers do.

I know that seasonal jobs in Maine go begging every year -- the Bar Harbor tourist-trap folks import labor from the Caribbean and ex-Soviet bloc, to flip burgers and clean hotel rooms. Always stirring up the congressional delegation for more work visas. And several apple orchards have shut down because of a chronic shortage of pickers each fall.

Re: She's still there, last time I looked --

[perspicuity.livejournal.com]

i've noticed a couple things with regard to "On the lower end of the scale, most of the Mexican migrant workers that people complain about are doing menial jobs that the complainers aren't willing to do in the first place"

o not just mexican, but especially brazillian, and lately, other cultures are just pouring in. oddly, i don't see many folx from india doing these sorts of jobs - don't know why.

o in "expensive to live areas", which are typically summering areas, but not always, for tourists, you cannot LIVE there on the wages they pay, unless you are already living there year round with family/etc, let alone endure the commutes that are probably when you can find a place to live...

the wages are the lowest possible usually, for long days, and sometimes hard work. they cannot afford to pay more, and have gotten used to for years not paying more...

thus, very hard to find workers generally speaking... the cycle is broken. "back in the day", they could rely on locals childrens and such to do work, but a lot of those moved out when taxes to live in their long time ancestral homes became too much of a burden to pay: i met someone living on one of the boston islands. they've had the property a LONG time, the property/shack is easily worth a million plus now. it's a cottage really. beach house. small. they have neighbors building illegal (installing tiered retaining walls for instance) multistory minimansions next to them that just jack up the values more and more... they're holding out, but they will have to sell eventually. they LIVE there, most of the others just visit - but those others expect to be able to hire services...

o in most of the other areas, like one's local neighborhood, any jobs at any place like mcdonald's, or food courts, office cleaning, grounds crews, lawn work, etc, is largely dominated by certain groups. they work hard, and deserve it. except if they are illegal, imho. there are a LOT of people who would do that work, if they could get the jobs... but they can't. it's very very difficult to get in. i know carpenters that can't get work, because a GC can hire 8 semi-skilled guys for the same pay, and get a lot more done, even if it's sloppy and needs to be redone. cash. no taxes. illegal. that's how they play it.

o another issue is that a lot of the money is sent "home" to support out of country families/etc. that doesn't help our economy at all. much of this money is not getting taxes payed properly on it, or worse, ID thieves are causing OTHER people to accept the burden of these false taxes... yikes.

o free medical care and other drains on services from non-citizens... i don't even want to get going on that one.

imho, we need to immediately suspend H1B and other work import programs, ENFORCE existing laws really, including "no papers == no work" and FINE the crap out of businesses that overlook this, lock the borders down from illegals coming in, get rid of these stupid laws where it's wrong/immoral/whatever to ask a potential immigrant for their proof of citizenship/id (course, it's okay to ask a citizen for id)... and boot them out.

yes, there's a ton of issues to work out here, but we can figure it out. the majority of other countries have, and don't tolerate what is happening here. no papers? no work, no housing, no money, they leave on their own.

THIS would probably do wonders for the economy in short order.

#

Re: She's still there, last time I looked --

[unixronin.livejournal.com]

free medical care and other drains on services from non-citizens... i don't even want to get going on that one.

That's a big part of what's bankrupting California.

Re: She's still there, last time I looked --

[blackcoat.livejournal.com]

Cite, please?

Re: She's still there, last time I looked --

[unixronin.livejournal.com]

OK, I should have qualified that with "so I've heard." I don't have a direct cite, but I've seen it said in many print articles since at least the mid-1990s that one of the places California's been bleeding red ink for years is services to migrants, frequently undocumented illegals, notably including urgent medical services for which hospitals aren't allowed to turn them away.

That said, I haven't looked at the current CA state budget to see what the actual breakdown of the red ink is. So take it as hearsay.

ETA: According to this article, the cost of providing services to illegal immigrants (including the cost of incarcerating illegal-immigrant felons, who make up 11% of the California prison population) is about $5 billion a year.

http://www.latimes.com/news/local/politics/cal/la-me-cap2-2009feb02,0,4875070.column

That's a lot smaller chunk of the state's budget shortfall than it used to be than I remember it being (trying to be accurate here), but then, when I was last paying close attention to it seven or eight years ago, my recollection is the budget shortfall was somewhere around the $10 billion mark, not $42 billion.

Re: She's still there, last time I looked --

[lebo-superman.livejournal.com]

Yeah, and still - back when I was still able to work, I got fired from an unskilled job because it was cheaper to hire illegals. I was there; I was willing to do the job; I had an exemplary attendance record. I just didn't have the right nationality. In my own country. To top it off - I'm a disabled VETERAN. Don't cry to me about employers hiring for jobs that go begging - turn off the immigration spigot and watch some of these people who are now unemployed (but were lawyers and MBA's) start doing whatever it takes to put food on the table.

[ziactrice.livejournal.com]

I'm a chemical engineer, graduated 1993. I have twice been laid off so that a company could retain foreign engineers sponsored by HB-1 visas.

Tell me again how there aren't enough American engineers?

I was more qualified and more skilled in both the above instances, also.

[unixronin.livejournal.com]

Yup. But I'll bet the H1B engineers got paid a lot less, didn't they?

You can thank the Harvard Business School with its MBA program and its theory of bottom-line economics for that — the short-sighted and stupid ideas that all companies are interchangeable, that you don't have to actually understand anything about your industry to run a company, and that the only thing that matters is the bottom line on the quarterly balance sheet.

(The last time I knew, IN THEORY, in order to get a H1B worker approved, a company first had to demonstrate and document to the Department of Labor that no qualified American citizen was available to fill the job. I'm not sure exactly whether that requirement got swept away, or whether they're just ignoring it...)

[ithildae.livejournal.com]

That requirement is ridiculously easy to meet. I had a couple of H1B people working for me when I was at $BIG_COMPANY. It was a bit of a pain, as far as special documentation of actual work was concerned, but HR just waved a magic, obfuscating-wand at the US government, and everything went through. I was really happy to have the folks I got through the H1B program, they were great workers!

Put things in a different perspective. If the quarterly balance sheets are not coming out right, nothing else matters. (I know that you turned that slightly, but I believe that my statement is true.) It is only when you have a correct balance sheet that you can focus on other areas of the company. (I am talking about a going concern, not a startup/small business where it may take a couple of years to get the fundamentals and market segment functioning.)

[unixronin.livejournal.com]

True, the company won't survive if it's not profitable. The problem is the absence of long-term planning that the mindset encourages — sacrificing the ability of the company to maintain and develop its business in the long term in order to make a bigger profit this quarter to make the analysts' projected numbers, because if you don't make the projections the stock will drop. I understand the original intent and purpose of the stock market, but I think today it has become the tail that wags the dog.

Were I ever to start my own company, I would fight like hell to keep it from ever going public, because once it goes public, you're at the mercy of the stock market.

[lwj2.livejournal.com]

That's sort of a myth.

If you were to go public for say 20% of your stock, hold the remaining 80%, show a profit and distribute dividends, the price of your stock wouldn't matter a damn except to the traders in the market.

Once well-established, it would, in theory, be to your advantage for your firm's stock to tank, it could then be purchased at a discount by your firm and retired.

Then you could sneer at the market and pocket the profits.

[unixronin.livejournal.com]

True, there is that. Of course, if you actively (or arguably actively) arranged for the stock to tank, you'd likely face insider-trading charges...

[lwj2.livejournal.com]

True, but if you simply paid dividends and sneered at the WSJ when asked why your stock's value wasn't climbing, that might do it -- something on the order of "We pay decent dividends to our stockholders. What it trades for isn't a matter of concern. It was a good value at our IPO."

The media should take it from there.

You, of course, would be reviled as a hard-hearted ebil capitalist swine oppressor of the poor, et c.

[ithildae.livejournal.com]

I hear you loud and clear. I just got my BEE last May. I fall well outside the demographic/cost of what it seems anyone was looking for. The way my head is put together, I can't imagine getting anything other than an engineering degree. I loved the material studied. I am a hard, effective worker. I am going back to being my own boss. It is the only way to make ends meet right now.

[ithildae.livejournal.com]

In my graduating EE class, there were perhaps forty of us that were US citizens. Most of those were of Asian ethnicity (I count India as Asia.) [Come to think of it, even I fit that pattern. My father is an immigrant, albeit from Germany rather than Asia.]

I know several students from the MEE program that are going back for an MBA. Even more from the CE or CSci programs are going back for a masters, in ... Anything. A bachelors degree will get you nowhere in the interview screening process right now. (Academic escalation?)

The focus here is misguided. Large companies tend to hire H1B workers. Small businesses employ the most workers, overall. Focusing on the hiring habits of large businesses for rescue of the job market is silly. They are the most likely to screw over employees. BTDT.

[unixronin.livejournal.com]

I've considered going back for a masters' degree, and cymrullewes encourages me to, but, well ...

• I don't know what I should study;


• I'm uncertain how we'd pay for it (I don't know if I could qualify for enough grants and scholarships to cover the cost);


• I don't know whether I could actually complete a master's in my present mental state;


• I don't know whether it'd be cost-effective because I don't know whether it'd be enough to get me hired;


• I have absolutely no idea how on earth I'd ever come up with a master's thesis.

One thing we've both considered is pharmacology. I'm given to understand pharmacists make pretty good money, and some of the pharmacy chains will pay your way through school in return for a contractual obligation to work for them for the N years after you graduate. (N=4?) But I suspect that also means you have to be willing and able to relocate to where they want you to work.

[ilcylic.livejournal.com]

Ping spsh about it. She's a Pharm.D.

[jhetley.livejournal.com]

Grad school sometimes pays for itself. Younger Son managed to get through to his PhD at UNH on grants and stipends and teaching entry level psych and statistics classes. I don't recall our chipping in more than a thou a year.

Couldn't have done it with his own family to feed, though.

[unixronin.livejournal.com]

And that's exactly the problem. Either one of us needs to be home to take care of the kids while the other works to keep a roof over our heads, or the one of us working needs to be making enough that we can afford to pay for childcare as well. And decent childcare isn't cheap.

[ithildae.livejournal.com]

I am considering going for a masters starting in F'10, but I know I could not complete it in my current mental status quo. I would do EE or Math, so that I could teach math, something that I enjoy.

I am seeing a rapidly decreasing market value for a masters degree, so what you study should be what you enjoy. Cost is covered by loans, about $50,000 for the program.

If you are interested in the medical side of things, a Nurse Practitioner is still a pretty reasonable thing to be. There is significant future down that road. In that case, a thesis is not an issue.

The thesis part is actually more significant than most people think. You will come up with your thesis with your advisor, and it will be something related to what your advisor is researching. At the U of M, even with about 100 faculty in EE/CE, the number of instructors you will deal with in your masters program focus area will be about three to four. If you don't get along with one of them, it will be very hard to complete the program. More significantly, if they don't get along with each other, delaying the other prof's students is a very easy way to score points against them.

One of the things I am seriously considering is going for a PA-C. It would be a total pain because you need to take full boards every six years to stay licensed, but I am totally fascinated and enthralled by medicine. I just need to take stock of where I am at in six months to evaluate if any further education is reasonable for me. Right now, I just couldn't cope with it. (Besides, there may be better options.)

[unixronin.livejournal.com]

What I'd really like to do is probably go study physics. But a master's in physics is just about worthless these days — "just" a master's is generally interpreted as "couldn't manage a Ph.D". And at probably 53-54 by the time I completed a Ph.D even if I could start this year, the odds are against finding work in physics anyway. Certainly in research, unless I happened to accomplish something truly exceptional. In any case, I've never really had a strong enough grasp on advanced mathematics.

That, really, is a large part of the problem with me going for any higher degree. I don't KNOW any more what I want to do, what I'd enjoy, that I feel capable of actually doing.

[ithildae.livejournal.com]

I hear you.

One of these days, I would like to actually speak with you. I wonder if there are mutual experiences that we can learn from. I have questions about many of the same issues.