"'Ow do you know 'e's a pirate?" "'E LOOKS like one!"

[unixronin]

Since the end of August, Gortney said, there have been 50 instances where coalition ships have disrupted potential pirate attacks, throwing guns overboard and sinking small skiffs.  But in many instances they had to release the people on the ships because of the legal hurdles.

I put it to you that there is a simple solution to this:

"If we find you loitering with apparent intent in the shipping lanes, in a small boat with weapons, we will presumptively assume that you are a pirate.  Game over."

Comments

[johnkzin.livejournal.com]

The problem is:

• fishing boats are likely to loiter ... that's kinda what they do
  
• in that part of the ocean, a fishing boat without an armed crew is a stupid fishing boat
  
• the pirates are using fishing boats too (as they're fishing boats being used for piracy)
  

So, it would seem to me, that unless all of the fishing industry in that area has dried up (which _could_ be the case), then your heuristic is awfully prone to false positives.

[jhetley.livejournal.com]

That's where the Q-Ships come in. They wait for someone to attack them. Instant ID.

[johnkzin.livejournal.com]

right, but Q-ships wasn't the offered solution. the offered solution was:

"If we find you loitering with apparent intent in the shipping lanes, in a small boat with weapons, we will presumptively assume that you are a pirate. Game over."

that's a solution with bad false positives.

[unixronin.livejournal.com]

Personally, I tend to assume that "in the shipping lanes dodging ships" probably doesn't make for good fishing. I think the odds of false positive are pretty low providing you adopt a sensible definition of "apparent intent". A fishing boat that pulls in its nets and gets out of the way when a ship approaches, or whose crew ignores any ship not on a possible collision course, is probably innocent. A boat that has nets in the water but whose crew seems to put far more attention into scrutinizing passing ships than into doing any actual fishing, on the other hand, should probably be regarded with suspicion.

I also tend to doubt the idea that ordinary honest fishermen who'd never think of piracy are going to be putting to sea heavily armed. The evidence seems to indicate the pirates aren't going after the fishermen. A net half-full of bream doesn't bring in much money when your business plan is based on ransoming supertankers.