The political landscape

[unixronin]

I've come across a variety of articles across the Web talking about how the Republican Party is melting down as moderate Republicans, feeling marginalized by their own party, are abandoning it to run as independents.  (Here's an example from the Boston Globe.)

My intent here is not to argue about whether or not the Republican Party is in fact falling apart.  Rather, I have a larger question:  Assume for the moment that the speculation is true.  If the Republican Party falls apart, what happens to the Democratic Party?

The way I see it, there's a variety of ways it could go.  If enough moderate Republicans cross over to the Democratic side of the aisle, we could end up with a de-facto one-party system, with a Congress all but completely controlled by the Democratic Party and no other faction powerful enough to seriously challenge it at the Federal level.  Or, one or more of the third parties could pick up enough support to challenge the Democratic Party.  The Democratic Party itself could move back towards the center, influenced by former moderate Republicans and no longer needing to cater to its more radical left-wingers; or, no longer needing support from the center to defeat the Republican Party, it could move further left.  Or, it could even melt down itself, lacking the Republican party to balance it.

[Note:  I don't claim this is an exhaustive list, or that any of them is a sure thing.  I'm not predicting, I'm speculating.]

So, what do all you zombies think?

Comments

[dafydd.livejournal.com]

What, the viewpoint that your predictions are meaningless over a time horizon of anything more than two years?

I've already opined, years ago, that our system limits us to two parties. I don't particularly care what those two parties call themselves, or what they represent, unless an election is coming up and I must do my civic duty. At that point, I compare the two philosophic leaders, and make my choice.

[unixronin.livejournal.com]

In the first place, I didn't make any predictions, I speculated.

In the second, no, I'm referring to the idea that the US will always have two dominant parties, a progressive/liberal Democratic party and a conservative Republican party. It hasn't even been true thoughout the past history of the US. Why should it remain true throughout its future?