The political landscape

[unixronin]

I've come across a variety of articles across the Web talking about how the Republican Party is melting down as moderate Republicans, feeling marginalized by their own party, are abandoning it to run as independents.  (Here's an example from the Boston Globe.)

My intent here is not to argue about whether or not the Republican Party is in fact falling apart.  Rather, I have a larger question:  Assume for the moment that the speculation is true.  If the Republican Party falls apart, what happens to the Democratic Party?

The way I see it, there's a variety of ways it could go.  If enough moderate Republicans cross over to the Democratic side of the aisle, we could end up with a de-facto one-party system, with a Congress all but completely controlled by the Democratic Party and no other faction powerful enough to seriously challenge it at the Federal level.  Or, one or more of the third parties could pick up enough support to challenge the Democratic Party.  The Democratic Party itself could move back towards the center, influenced by former moderate Republicans and no longer needing to cater to its more radical left-wingers; or, no longer needing support from the center to defeat the Republican Party, it could move further left.  Or, it could even melt down itself, lacking the Republican party to balance it.

[Note:  I don't claim this is an exhaustive list, or that any of them is a sure thing.  I'm not predicting, I'm speculating.]

So, what do all you zombies think?

Comments

[koyote.livejournal.com]

well, on the one hand, these things go in cycles- we've had one party governments for short periods of time before. I wouldn't worry about a one party state simply from a split in the "other party" (I am concerned about a one party state, but for other reasons)

On the other hand, i haven't seen the ultra-left wing Democratic party some people have. Sure, there are members who are, but most of the really radical people are greens, CP, anarchists, or one of the other small parties. The dems haven't run anything I'd consider as ultra radical in a presidential election or most of the major elections- in short the dems aren't that polarized, though plenty of *people* are.

The gripping hand says that if you found a split like you suspect, you'd end up with a republican party (under whichever name) moderate enough to attract *democrats* and a highly polarized Scudder Party (under whatever name) trying to emulate the Taliban or something. At which point we'd need to find a way for a balance to THAT to be workable, such as a stronger green party.

[unixronin.livejournal.com]

That's a possibility, too. Rather than just collapsing and withering on the vine, the Republican party could well fracture into Moderates and Theocrats. One could, in fact, argue that's what's already happening, with the Theocrats-to-be keeping the name.