A hit! A very palpable hit!

[unixronin]

The Pentagon reports a direct hit with yesterday's SM-3 shot at that errant spy satellite.  The Navy expressed some confidence that they had hit and fragmented the hydrazine fuel tank, the primary stated reason for the shoot.

Comments

[unixronin.livejournal.com]

Three letters:

N.
S.
A.

'Nuff said?

But yeah, I'd be surprised myself if the thing survived re-entry with the hydrazine tank intact. Look at how shredded Columbia was, and the shuttle has a heatshield and is at least moderately aerodynamic. A Keyhole was never designed to enter atmosphere. I see the hydrazine tank as a public-consumption rationale; the real reason for the shootdown is to ensure as far as possible that no unfriendly foreign power gets to study recognizeable bits of a KH-12 and figure out its capabilities. The three most important things in intelligence are (1) what you know about the other guy, (2) making sure that the other guy doesn't know what you know about him, and (3) knowing what he knows about you. This shoot, IMHO, is about #2.

[argonel.livejournal.com]

In my opinion it about 10% about making sure that the hydrazine tank or other large pieces don't hit the ground. 20% about showing off that we can hit it. and the remaining 70% is making sure that no recognizable or recovereable pieces reach the surface. Now that Russia and China have made their pro forma complaints we can go back to our usual squabbles.

[unixronin.livejournal.com]

I'd buy that analysis ...