(I need a more fitting usericon for stuff like this.)
Dr. Jeff Masters writes on the Weather Underground:
The latest runs of two key computer models, the GFS and GFDL, now indicate that the trough of low pressure that was expected to pick up Rita and pull her rapidly northward through Texas will not be strong enough to do so. Instead, these models forecast that Rita will make landfall near Galveston, penetrate inland between 50 and 200 miles, then slowly drift southwestward for nearly two days, as a high pressure ridge will build in to her north. Finally, a second trough is forecast to lift Rita out of Texas on Tuesday. If this scenario develops, not only will the coast receive catastrophic damage from the storm surge, but interior Texas, including the Dallas/Fort Worth area, might see a deluge of 15 - 30 inches of rain. A huge portion of Texas would be a disaster area. The models are not suggesting this at all, but is also possible that Rita may not make landfall on Saturday as expected, but pull up just short of the Texas coast and pound it for days as it waits for the next trough to pick her up. We'll have to wait for the next set of model runs due out by tomorrow morning to know better.
The 7:09 pm eye report from the hurricane hunters found a 897 mb pressure and flight level winds of 161 knots (186 mph). This pressure makes Rita the 3rd strongest Atlantic hurricane of all time. Tonight, Rita will be passing over the Loop Current, a warm eddy of water in the Gulf that aided Katrina's growth to a Category 5 hurricane. Fueled by this pool of deep warm water and an almost ideal upper level wind environment, Rita should continue to intensify until Thursday morning, when she will pass beyond the Loop Current. The eye has shrunk to 20 nm diameter from 25 nm earlier this afternoon. By the time the eye shrinks down to 10 nm, the eyewall will collapse and an eyewall replacement cycle begin, putting an end to this intensification cycle. With potentially another 12 hours to go before this happens, Rita could challenge Gilbert's 888 mb pressure record.
(Emphasis mine.)
That last note there is hair-raising. Katrina grew from a medium Category 4 to a monster of a Category 5 over the Loop Current; Katrina is going INTO the loop current as the third most intense Category 5 ever recorded.
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BUT-
But! if this puppy is a bitch when she hits and destroys Houton's oil production - well- I'm a gonna print me up some flyers talking about messages from Yahweh and pasting them to pollution mobiles at churches. (not counting the local Quaker and Methodist ones that helped me get transportation to protests and fed me during the pre invasion vigil and stuff)(well, maybe SUVs at those, too)
To misquote Samuel L. Jackson- "You want signs from God, motherfucker?"
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