Some numbers gleaned from today's issue of BusinessWeek while sitting in the dentist's waiting-room shed some revealing light on the Bush administration's claims of an economic recovery.
Contrary to White House press releases asserting that the economy is strong and improving, what the numbers have to say is that it's in deep trouble. Even after the Bush administration passed the largest economic stimulus package in US history, annual GDP growth has been only 3.4% since 2001, compared with an average of 5% over the previous six business cycles. Job growth is the slowest since the Great Depression; real wage and salary disbursements have risen less than 1% per year since 2001, compared to the norm of 4% during previous recoveries. Real wages for production and non-supervisory staff have actually declined. The real buying power of the minimum wage is at a 40-year low, and wages are the lowest percentage of GDP they have been since 1929.
Additionally, 5.2 million Americans have lost their health insurance coverage since 2001, bringing the total to 45 million -- one sixth of the US population. The percentage of companies with under 200 employees who offer health coverage to their workers has dropped from 68% to 63%, and among small businesses the rate has dropped from 57% to 50%. Health insurance premiums rose 11.2% last year, the fourth consecutive year of double-digit price increases; a typical family's health insurance now costs $9,950 per year. That same typical family now has $1,500 less in real wages than in 2001.
About the only thing that's booming is offshoring. The temporary H1-B visa cap extension of 195,000 H1-B visas per year recently expired, dropping the quota back to 65,000 per year. US companies burned through that 65,000-visa limit for fiscal 2004 by April; never to let mere legislative limits stop them from laying off more Americans, obtained permission to start early on the fiscal 2005 H1-B allocation. Fiscal 2005 starts on October 1, 2004; by the beginning of September, US businesses had burned through 47,000 of the 65,000 H1-Bs allocated for 2005.
Arguably, the Bush administration economic stimulus package has helped keep the recession from being worse than it is. (Many would debate whether the package actually helped anyone but the rich. lacking hard numbers, I leave analysis of that as an exercise for the reader.) Given the above numbers, it's pretty hard to deny that it hasn't helped enough; and we can't do it again. The Bush administration's fiscal policies have driven the US in four years from the largest budget surplus in US history to the largest budget deficit; the money just isn't there.
Now to make it perfectly clear, I'm not asserting that the Bush administration caused the recession. It grew directly out of the hyper-inflated tech stock bubble of the end of the 90s, driven by the greed of Wall Street investors who ignored risk, lack of product, and in many cases even lack of anything resembling a solid business plan, throwing caution to the winds for the lure of extravagant promises of return on investment with no basis in reality.
What I am asserting, on the other hand, is that the continuing Bush administration claims of economic recovery are a pack of self-serving lies that simply do not reflect the real state of the economy. And while this administration did not create the recession, lying about recovery (while insurance costs skyrocket, and businesses ship cheap H1-B workers in and jobs out) isn't making it any better.