I can see you're about as impressed with his reasoning and rigor as I was. ;)
In addition to all the above, not until this is over will we know for sure when the recession actually ends and where the highest peak of new unemployment starts is. You can't correlate events meaningfully when you don't know whether they've occurred yet. As ithildae pointed out, economists have correctly predicted nine of the last five recessions. Predictive economics is not a mature science, and if there's one thing US economic history has shown us, it's that economists and financial analysts don't fully understand the problem yet.
no subject
In addition to all the above, not until this is over will we know for sure when the recession actually ends and where the highest peak of new unemployment starts is. You can't correlate events meaningfully when you don't know whether they've occurred yet. As