I cannot be absolutely certain, of course, but it's more believable
When you're rejecting facts in favor of "probabilities" (thus throwing immense doubt on your ability to judge probabilities), I think I should merely quote my friend pdb (http://papadeltabravo.com/blog), with his take on your position, from early yesterday:
"I am uncomfortable with your facts disagreeing with my preconceptions!"
no subject
"I am uncomfortable with your facts disagreeing with my preconceptions!"