Latest update on Rita

[unixronin]

The National Hurricane Center's 0700CDT advisory says Rita dropped slightly in intensity overnight, with eye pressure rising from 897mb to 907mb.  Sustained winds are in the 170mph range, and position is around 490 miles SE of Galveston, moving west-northwest at about 9mph.  The NHC predicts slow further weakening.

AT 7 AM CDT...1200Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.3 WEST OR ABOUT 490 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS AND ABOUT 595 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS.

HEAVY RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH RITA ARE FORECAST TO BEGIN TO AFFECT THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO COASTAL AREAS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.  RITA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES FROM THE CENTRAL TEXAS COAST TO SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA.  RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ACROSS SOUTHERN LOUISIANA ...INCLUDING THE NEW ORLEANS METROPOLITAN AREA.  AFTER RITA MOVES INLAND...TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN TEXAS... AND CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA DURING SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

This could have been a lot worse; crossing the loop current boosted Katrina to category 5, but Rita doesn't seem to have picked up much energy from it.

Comments

[technoshaman.livejournal.com]

Aha. SOP.... Rita's getting an eyewall reorg. That generally drops the 'cane a cat. Katrina didn't reorg, being an annular, and that's what made it so whoop-ass, and they thought it was going to be worse.

I don't know this Beven guy that's doing the discussion... but Avila's been at it a while (he's doing the advisory), so if he says it's going to slow down a bit, I'd put some stock in that.... I'm really surprised they don't have Ed Rappaport in on this (he's probably kibbitzing); Ed cut his teeth on Gilbert....

Sign me, grey-bearded old met freak :)

(dammit, I need a "science" icon... )

[unixronin.livejournal.com]

Yeah, it seems pretty clear by now there's an eyewall replacement cycle underway. We'll see what happens later today and tomorrow, I guess.

[rbos.livejournal.com]

The part of me that likes seeing stuff go blam is kinda disappointed. :(

[unixronin.livejournal.com]

While it might have been interesting as an academic exercise to see what a new "most intense Atlantic hurricane ever measured" looked like, it wouldn't be at all academic for a lot of folks on the Texas and Louisiana coasts, and even inland in Texas, for whom I suspect there's going to be plenty of blam to go around. This is still one big, deep, nasty storm. And even at that, while the projections are for continued weakening, they've been wrong before.
I'm waiting to see what the final end result is from the current eyewall replacement cycle before I heave any sighs of relief.