Taking stock in the aftermath

[unixronin]

It appears early reports about how relatively lightly the Gulf Coast got off from Katrina were over-optimistic.  The prior reported death toll was 65, including the 11 people who died when Katrina passed over Florida; it appears from reports this morning that more than 100 are now known dead in Mississippi alone, and that number is expected to triple by the time everyone is accounted for.  35 people swam out of a flooding Harrison County, Mississippi emergency operations center wearing life jackets, and haven't been seen since dead or alive.  Much of the Mississippi coast is still unreachable by rescue workers.  No hard numbers are coming out of New Orleans, but Senator Mary Landrieu is quoted as saying "at least 50 to 100 dead".  Who knows how long it'll be before everything's sorted out in New Orleans, but there's reports of bodies floating in the streets (and some reports of sharks).  The US Coastguard has rescued over 1,200 people stranded by floodwaters.

(Some official figure commented how terrible it was that rescuers weren't collecting bodies, they were just pushing them out of the way and looking for survivors, like this was a bad thing.  DUH!!!  You take care of the LIVING first!  The dead are beyond help.  The living can still be saved.)

Reports of the number of refugees huddled in the Superdome vary widely.  Most news media are quoting numbers between 10,000 and 20,000; the number 30,000 is being frequently tossed around by New Orleans area bloggers.  I've heard as high as 60,000 quoted, but I strongly suspect that was taken out of context.

(Update:  elegantelbow just gave me a reference to this from WWL-TV, New Orleans, saying as of 1621 yesterday "officials [say] there may now be 60,000 people in the Superdome and that more people are still being urged to go there."  The same source quotes Governor Blanco at 0657 today saying "Estimated 20,000 people in dome and they will be dispersed around the state to rescue centers being set up. Situation 'unteneable' in Superdome."  Governor Blanco has also ordered the complete evacuation of everyone remaining in New Orleans.  In particular, she wants the Superdome evacuated within two days.  That may be a tall order.)

There is no clean water in the city, and the water in the streets is contaminated with oil, industrial chemicals and raw sewage.  With "at least three" levee breaks reported, one of them over 200 feet -- and maybe as much as 500 feet -- wide, there is more than 20 feet of water in some parts of the city, and the remaining dry islands are shrinking rapidly (and some of them are burning due to gas leaks).  Some reports project the entire city of New Orleans will be flooded by tomorrow morning.  The US Army Corps of Engineers reportedly plans to make another attempt today to seal the levee breaks.  It's being widely said that every surviving wood-framed structure in the city will probably have to be torn down, in addition to the buildings that have already collapsed and the highrises structurally weakened by the winds.  The causeway across Lake Pontchartrain is down.  On the scale of disasters to American cities, this is probably at least up there with the San Francisco earthquake and fire of 1906 or the great Chicago fire.  3,500 National Guard troops have been sent to New Orleans in response to widespread looting, and Alabama is reportedly sending two Alabama National Guard battalions to Mississippi to aid rescue work alongside the 1,600 Mississippi National Guard troops already deployed.

Oil production in the Gulf is almost at a standstill; more than 4,000 offshore oil and gas platforms, supplying over 30% of America's domestic oil and 24% of its natural gas, lay in Katrina's path.  645 platforms and 90 oil rigs have been evacuated, some of which have subsequently been spotted adrift or sunk.  Department of Energy reports cited by the International Herald Tribune indicate that 95.2% of Gulf of Mexico oil production and 88% of gas production is offline, and that doesn't take into account damage to refineries.  President Bush has ordered the release of 4.2 million barrels of oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve to help cover the shortfall; reportedly, this will be a loan to an unnamed oil refiner.  Around 1.4 million people (down from an earlier 4.6 million to 5.75 million) are still without electrical power (or, in many cases, phone service or clean water).  DTE Energy of Detroit has sent 75 trucks and 400 workers to help restore power.  An estimated one million people in the region are homeless.  In addition, the Port of South Louisiana, the largest cargo-handling port on the US in terms of tonnage and fourth largest in the world, is shut down, and there are suggestions that the service disruptions resulting from Katrina could be the straw that breaks the back of Delta Airlines.

And this was considered a Category 4 hurricane.  When Katrina dropped to a Category 4, people said, "Oh, this is OK now, this isn't going to be anywhere near as bad as Camille."  But there's stories from all over of structures that came through Camille undamaged, that Katrina has just obliterated.  (To be fair, they were 35 years younger then.)  And if the prospect out of Mississippi is even close to accurate, the final death toll in Mississippi alone will exceed the total deaths from Camille before even starting to add in the completely unknown number in New Orleans.  (Alabama seems to have gotten off relatively lightly with only two known fatalities, but power is still out in much of the state.)  The devout among you may wish to thank whatever higher powers you believe in that Katrina weakened Sunday night, instead of continuing to gain strength as predicted as it passed across the warmest waters in the Gulf and reaching shore as a Category 5-and-then-some.