Holy crap, N'Awlins

[unixronin]

Seems things on the Gulf Coast have taken a big turn for the worse overnight.  They're evacuating New Orleans.  The 10am advisory is reporting sustained winds of 175mph, with gusts to 215mph, and eye barometric pressure down to 907 millibars, with hurricane-force winds out to 105nm from the storm center and tropical storm force out to 205nm.  The eye diameter is 20nm.  Katrina bears all the hallmarks of an annular hurricane, which -- if correct -- means it's likely to maintain full strength all the way to landfall.

(From Brendan Loy:)

Dr. Jeff Masters says Katrina is likely to strengthen even further.  He says she is "in the midst of a truly historic rapid deepening phase--the pressure has dropped 34 mb in the 11 hours ending at 7am EDT," and he suggests that "at the rate Katrina is deepening, she could easily be the third or fourth most intense hurricane ever, later today."  And even if the pressure doesn't fall any further, "The winds are likely to increase to 'catch up' to the rapidly falling pressure, and could approach the all-time record of 190 mph set in Camille and Allen.  Winds of this level will create maximum storm surge heights over 25 feet, and this storm surge will affect an area at least double the area wiped clean by Camille, which was roughly half the size of Katrina.  Katrina has continued to expand in size, and is now a huge hurricane like Ivan.  Damage will be very widespread and extreme if Katrina can maintain Category 5 strength at landfall."

The storm surge "will most likely top our levee system," says New Orleans' Mayor Ray Nagin.  NOAA has some storm surge simulations for a slow-moving Category 4 hurricane here -- and Katrina is already among the strongest of Category 5 hurricanes.

Update:

Storm track prediction from NOAA here.